September 20: Another Autumnal Day



We started off at 50° in the Triangle this morning, our coolest temperature since May 15! Plenty of spots north and west of the Triangle dropped into the 40s…Roxboro was the cool spot, with a low of 43°.

Today will be another day of nearly-perfect weather. Abundant sunshine, low humidity, very light winds…sounds good to me! Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80° this afternoon.

We won’t be quite as cool tonight — temperatures will drop to the low to mid 50s by early Saturday.

The warm-up starts to kick in this weekend — highs will be back into the 80s on Saturday.

Upper 80s return to the forecast Sunday, and we’ll stay there (or even up to around 90°) all of next week. Rain chances will remain very low all week.

The humidity will slowly increase as well, but it won’t be bad — at worst, we’ll still have “tolerable” humidity levels next week.

The long-range data indicates that the hot and dry weather will continue all the way into early October. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a significant likelihood of above-average temperatures for the next two weeks.

And the CPC’s 8-14 day precipitation outlook is bone-dry.


Two of the three named storms we’ve been tracking this week are dissipating: Hurricane Humberto has officially become post-tropical as it moves into the north Atlantic, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda are finally falling apart over southeast Texas. Imelda dropped unbelievable amounts of rain over Texas, on some of the same areas that were devastated by Hurricane Harvey just two years ago.

Now to that third named storm: Hurricane Jerry intensified throughout the day on Thursday, and remains a Category 2 storm as of 5:00am Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts.

A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin late today. The National Hurricane Center anticipates that Jerry will become a Category 1 storm this weekend as it tracks to the west-northwest, just north of the islands of the Caribbean. The storm is still likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, even though the center of circulation will stay north.

The extended NHC outlook shows Jerry turning to the north before reaching the Bahamas. Jerry then will be near Bermuda on Tuesday, still as a Category 1 hurricane — Bermuda’s second encounter with a hurricane in less than a week!

The long-range forecast data strongly agrees with that assessment, keeping Jerry away from the East Coast of the U.S.

That’s still a long way off in forecasting terms, so we’ll continue to watch the latest trends in the forecast data. At this point it doesn’t look like the storm will have any impact on central North Carolina’s weather.

There are also three other disturbances we’re keeping an eye on in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. One disorganized area of clouds and showers in the Caribbean only has a 10% chance of developing in the next 5 days.

The system to the southeast of Hurricane Jerry has a 30% chance of developing in the next 5 days as it approaches the Caribbean.

Finally, a cluster of storms just west of Africa has a 60% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next 5 days…but it won’t be close to land for at least 10 days, even if it intensifies further.


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