September 26: Feels Like July 88th



The unseasonably hot September continues — today’s temperatures will be more reminiscent of late July, and there’s more to come!

Dense fog and low cloud early this morning are trying to put the brakes on the warm-up, but southwesterly winds will help stir the atmosphere and disperse the clouds. Temperatures will warm up quickly, all the way to the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon.

Factor in the humidity, and it will feel like the mid to upper 90s. Yes, we’re talking about the heat index in the last days of September.

There are some ups and downs on the Muggy Meter over the next 5 days, but no real relief in sight.

An approaching cold front will try to squeeze out a few showers this evening and early tonight. the HRRR model’s radar simulation from 11am through 11pm isn’t impressed with our rain chances.

That “cold” front won’t have too much of an impact on our temperatures tonight…we’ll only drop to the upper 60s in most spots.

Temperatures will back off slightly on Friday, but we’ll still end up almost 10° above average.

Right back up to 90° on Saturday, into the low 90s on Sunday…and the near-record high temperatures continue right on through the middle of next week.

Mostly dry weather will prevail through the middle of next week as well. The best chance of rain will be a whopping 30% chance of spotty storms late in the day on Sunday.

We might see a pattern shift by late next week, which would crack the heat wave. But until then…


Tropical Storm Karen and Hurricane Lorenzo are still making their way through the tropical Atlantic, but neither is expected to impact the United States.

Karen remains a disorganized tropical storm this morning, with 40 mph sustained winds as of 5:00am.

The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast shows the storm barely holding onto tropical storm status through Friday, then weakening to a tropical depression by late Saturday. Karen’s forecast track is bizarre — it turns to the east tonight and Friday, then makes a U-turn and heads west on Saturday.

The eastward turn is due to Karen’s interaction with what’s left of Tropical Storm Jerry — it’s an interaction called the Fujiwhara Effect. But as Jerry’s remnants completely fall part, Karen will reverse course and track to the west.

The westward trend will continue into early next week — fortunately, so will the weakening trend. The NHC forecast for Karen maintains it as a tropical depression next week…barely.

A lot of forecast data shows the storm dissipating entirely, including the European model’s ensemble. It estimates just a 25% chance that Karen is even a tropical depression by the middle of next week.

That’s very good news for the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida, but we’ll keep a close eye on Karen just in case.

We’re also tracking Hurricane Lorenzo, in the far eastern Atlantic. Lorenzo is now a major hurricane — it’s a Category 3 storm as of 6:00am, with 125 mph sustained winds. This is the third major hurricane of the Atlantic season, which is exactly the long-term (1981-2010) average for the entire season.

Lorenzo is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane over the next 24 hours, then it will very slowly weaken as it tracks farther north. Almost all of the forecast data keeps this storm over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean through early next week, without any threat to land. It could approach the Azores island chain by the middle of next week, but it will be a weaker storm by that point.


A short list today, but some good stuff…

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