September 27: Heat Wave Continues



We ended up breaking yesterday’s record high temperature — we hit 94° in the Triangle, one degree above the old record set in 1933. Today’s temperatures won’t be quite as hot, but it will still be unseasonably warm.

The humidity will still be very noticeable, and we won’t see much of a drop on the Muggy Meter until early next week.

We haven’t had any significant rain since Hurricane Dorian traveled along the coast three weeks ago, but we could see some scattered storms late today. They’ll start popping by late afternoon, with the best chance this evening and early overnight.

It’s lower than a 50-50 chance, but…

The HRRR model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight is pretty enthusiastic about our rain chances — other forecast models are quite a bit drier, so consider this the “rainiest-case” scenario.

The weekend will just be hot. I can’t rule out a storm or two each afternoon, but our rain chances will be limited through most of next week.

While our temperatures will back off slightly by Monday and Tuesday, we’ll still be flirting with record highs each day through Thursday.

Through yesterday (the 26th), this is the 8th-warmest September on record in the Triangle. Figuring in the forecast temperatures through Monday, I think this will end up as the 6th- or 7th-warmest on record, just outside the top 5.


Tropical Storm Karen and Hurricane Lorenzo are still making their way through the tropical Atlantic, but neither is expected to impact the U.S.

Tropical Storm Karen is barely holding onto tropical storm status this morning — sustained winds are just above the 39 mph threshold as of 5:00am.

Karen will barely maintain that tropical storm status today, then it will weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Karen’s forecast track is bizarre — it continue to the east today and tonight, then it makes a U-turn and heads west Saturday and Sunday. The National Hurricane Center anticipates that Karen will basically fall apart by Monday, before it can threaten the Bahamas or the U.S. coast.

We’re also tracking Hurricane Lorenzo, in the far eastern Atlantic. Lorenzo is now a major Category 4 hurricane, with 145 sustained winds as of 5:00am. It’s the strongest hurricane in the eastern Atlantic on record!

Lorenzo is expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane over the next 24 hours, then it will very slowly weaken as it tracks farther north. Almost all of the forecast data keeps this storm over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean through early next week, without any threat to land. It looks like Lorenzo will impact the Azores island chain by Tuesday night — the NHC forecast shows it as a Category 2 storm by that point.


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