System to likely develop into Tropical Storm Dorian by Monday


RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – One of the factors in this weekend’s forecast is a developing tropical system off the coast of south Florida.

The National Hurricane Center now estimates a 70 percent chance this becomes at least a tropical depression by early next week.

The European forecast model’s ensemble estimates a 70 percent chance we’re looking at Tropical Storm Dorian by Monday (but a near-zero chance it becomes a hurricane).

Both the NHC projection and the European model show the system — regardless of strength — remaining centered offshore.

That means plenty of rain along the coast this weekend, while we just get lingering light showers in the Triangle.

That offshore track will also reinforce the northeasterly wind flow — those winds will try to drag drier air to our north down into central North Carolina.

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