East Coast rain storm more likely this weekend

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The stalled-out cold front down near Florida could still move back north this weekend as a rain and wind-making low pressure with eyes on the Carolinas. As of Tuesday afternoon, The National Hurricane Center is still monitoring the area east of Florida and Georgia for possible development later this week, but it is unlikely the low pressure will be a tropical system.

The name or type of system this low becomes really doesn’t change the impact North Carolina could see, but we are still trying to forecast for a system that hasn’t even formed yet, which will make this a difficult forecast that will likely undergo many changes this week.

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center Tuesday afternoon keeps the chance at 30% of something developing east of Florida or Georgia in the next 7 days, but it most likely won’t be a traditional tropical system. Instead, it could be a non-tropical rain-making area of low pressure that will bring wind and rain to the Carolinas this weekend, similar to a nor’easter.

As you look at the satellite over the Atlantic Ocean north of the Bahamas right now, there are hardly any clouds, let alone a tropical system. The stalled out front is waiting on upper-level energy coming all the way across the country from Florida. That’s expected to arrive Thursday or Friday and that’s when the low could form.

The CBS 17 Storm Team began seeing signals within the forecast data last Friday, and each subsequent update has produced similar chances for development.

While there is still disagreement in the long-range computer models on timing, strength, and position of the developing low, it is looking more and more likely that wet and windy weather will be here Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

What does it mean for Central North Carolina?

While we still iron out the specific impacts, heavy rain and gusty winds are becoming increasingly likely, especially on Saturday. Rain amounts could total 1″ to 2″ and wind gusts could be as high as 30 – 40 mph.

As always, check back in for updates. We will keep you advised in the coming days.

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This forecast was prepared by the CBS 17 Storm Team and is based on the latest information available and years of weather forecasting in North Carolina. It was not produced by a computer like many forecasts you find on the web, social media, and smartphone apps.

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