Tracking the tropics: Jerry dissipates, Karen holds on


The trio of tropical systems is now down to just two as Jerry dissipated Wednesday. Tropical Storm Karen and Hurricane Lorenzo are still kicking in the Atlantic, but neither are expected to impact the U.S.

Karen remains a disorganized tropical storm, but will slowly strengthen as it tracks to the north through the end of this week. The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast shows the storm stalling by Friday, then turning briefly to the southeast Friday night and Saturday.

After that, the exact track is VERY up in the air — the NHC forecast shows Karen looping back over its own path and accelerating to the west early next week.

The forecast data for Karen is still muddled — the “spaghetti plot” of forecast model scenarios shows some that follow the NHC track to the west, and some that keep Karen wandering around in the Atlantic. It’s about a week away from threatening land, even if follows that westward path.

Tropical Storm Jerry is now a “post-tropical” system — the center of circulation is approaching Bermuda, but all of the storm activity has been stripped away from the center. The storm will continue to merge with other systems over the North Atlantic over the next few days, although Jerry’s remnants could impact how Karen behaves to the south.

Finally, we have Hurricane Lorenzo, in the far eastern Atlantic. Lorenzo is the healthiest looking of the three storms and has the highest intensity forecast over the next five days.

Lorenzo is expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane before the end of the week. Almost all of the forecast data keeps this storm over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, without any threat to land.

The CBS 17 Storm Team will have you covered through the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

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