October 16: Wet Today, Cool Tomorrow

Paul Heggen's Weather Blog


Widespread rain will result in challenging road conditions today, but overall the rain is a very good thing for central North Carolina. We won’t get enough to cause any flooding problems, and we won’t have any severe weather to worry about either. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 9:00pm shows this morning’s rain diminishing to showers this afternoon, completely shutting down this evening.

We’ll even see a few peeks of sun late this afternoon and this evening, just enough to push temperatures to the mid to upper 60s and low 70s.

Northwesterly winds will start bringing some cool air into central North Carolina this evening, and we’ll drop to the low to mid 40s by early Thursday morning.

Abundant sunshine will prevail on Thursday, but strong northwesterly winds will out-battle the October sun, leaving high temperatures well below-average.

Friday and Saturday mornings will bring us the coolest temperatures we’ve seen since mid-April! Each afternoon will warm up a little more, before another good chance of rain heads our way Sunday.

Sunday’s rain chance is associated with a system that’s currently over a thousand miles away, over the east coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 50% chance it develops into at least a tropical depression over the next few days, as it travels over the warm water of the western Gulf of Mexico.

The European forecast ensemble even estimates a 30% chance the system becomes a tropical storm by Saturday, before it moves onshore along the Gulf Coast.

The European model’s simulation this weekend shows the heaviest rain with the system’s remnants staying south of us…but still plenty of shower activity late Saturday night and Sunday in our neck of the woods.

Yet another chance of rain heads our way with a cold front on Tuesday — thunderstorms will be more likely this time around, but it’s WAY too soon to speculate on any severe weather threat.


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