October 21: Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow

Paul Heggen's Weather Blog

We’re starting off this morning with some fog west of the Triangle, some thicker clouds along and east of I-95…but plenty of sun in the Triangle itself. Even where we’re seeing some cloud cover, the sun will emerge and warm temperatures up to the low to mid 70s in most spots this afternoon.

The clouds will increase tonight, especially after midnight. Lows will occur just after midnight, then we’ll warm up a few degrees by early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday’s forecast is…complicated. It’s one of those borderline severe weather threats that we see so often around here. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for most of central North Carolina.

But that doesn’t mean we’re going to get severe storms…in fact, it doesn’t even mean you’ll hear any rumbles of thunder AT ALL!

Here’s what we know about tomorrow’s weather setup:
– A strong storm system will send a good chance of rain our way.
– There will be a lot of wind energy in the atmosphere overhead.

But the uncertainty stems from what we don’t know yet:
– How much rain do we see early in the morning?
– How long does the early-morning rain last?
– If the morning rain quiets down, how much do temperatures warm up?

The warmer we get, the more likely it is that severe storms will develop. Right now I think the Triangle will be right on the edge of the greatest severe threat — a very close call! Areas south and east of the Triangle have a better chance of some stronger storms developing in the afternoon…that’s where the SPC’s ensemble model shows the most-favorable mix of wind energy and instability.

The North American Model’s radar simulation from 6am through 8pm Tuesday shows a favorable setup for at least some severe weather threat. Morning rain, a brief break, then strong storms developing in the afternoon marching quickly to the east.

That’s one version of one forecast model…there are others that veer closer to the “best-case” scenario for us — cooler temperatures, a much lower severe threat, and just plain ol’ rain for most of the day. At this point, just plan on staying weather-aware Tuesday afternoon, and be ready for some storms with a damaging wind threat and maybe even an isolated tornado.

Once Tuesday’s storm threat moves out, a pleasant weather pattern will take hold for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of rain could head our way already by late Friday, sticking around into at least the first half of the weekend.

Still a lot of questions about that weekend storm system as well — seems like the weather will be in an indecisive mood for the next 7-10 days. We’ll keep you updated all week as the forecast evolves…

Off to a school visit today, so no time for the nerd-links…the daily nerdiness will be back tomorrow!

Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Trending Stories

Don't Miss