RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — Tuesday was The Triangle’s fourth morning starting in the 40s thus far this fall.

A chilly start for sure but considering Tuesday is the average date of the first morning low in the 30s at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, we’re a little behind pace.

Last year, the first frost happened Oct. 19; pretty much right on par for the average. That won’t be the case this year. Every morning low in the Storm Team’s 10-Day Forecast keeps those morning temps at or above 40 degree.

It’s a trend that has been picking up during the past several decades.

Since 1970, we have seen an average of 18 more fall days without a freeze at RDU, from a running average of 51 in 1970 to 69 in 2022.

Not only are we seeing warmer fall days, but also later first frosts.

Across the U.S., the first fall frost is coming a week later on average since pre-industrial times. Plus, the last spring frost is averaging five days earlier, in essence, almost a two-week longer growing and allergy season, especially in the fall.

Ragweed is the primary culprit of those fall sniffles, but the good news is that ragweed season is fading away as we get colder and colder. The first frost in Raleigh on average comes on Oct. 27.

With the look of the 10-Day Forecast and how the large-scale weather pattern is shaping up to close out October, it’s looking more and more likely that the first frost will come in November.