Snow next week in North Carolina – what’s the deal?

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RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — There’s just about a month left in winter and we still have not had any measurable snow in central North Carolina.

If you were on social media this week you may have seen the excitement that the snow drought could end. A handful of computer models showed North and South Carolina getting hit with the first snow of the season later next week.

Those computer models have now changed things up again, but this is just another good reminder that looking at one run of any computer model more than a week out can be a disappointing game.

The usual weather pattern that brings snow to North Carolina is one where a cold front moves through bringing a blast of colder air. That cold air needs reinforcements in the form of high pressure continuing to feed cold air in from the north.

Finally, we need moisture and that usually moves in from the south. The problem is, that moisture from the south is usually warmer and that’s not what we need for snow. It’s a very hard set up and at one point those perfect conditions looked possible next week.

There will be a cold front moving through next Wednesday and there will be colder air to follow, but the extra cold air behind the front and moisture from the south now look less likely.

So, while it will be colder later next week, it likely won’t be cold enough and there likely won’t be enough moisture to give us snow and we do not have it in our forecast. As you know, these things do change, so keep an eye on the forecast with the CBS 17 Storm Team.

The Triangle has never had a snow-free winter since records began back in 1887. So far this winter we have not had any measurable snow in the Triangle.

February is usually our second snowiest month of the year with 26% of our snow coming during the shortest month of the year.

It has been more than 430 days since we’ve had measurable snow in the Triangle. The last snow was nearly 9 inches that fell December 9 and 10, 2018.

Computer models are an important tool for meteorologists reaching a final forecast, but one run of one computer model can often be misleading.

These same computer models have already given central North Carolina several snow storms this winter, just like in the summer these same computer models have the Carolinas getting hit with numerous hurricanes.

Using numerous computer models and watching trends to make decisions is better.

Follow the CBS 17 Storm Team on social media for the latest weather updates:

Chief Meteorologist Wes Hohenstein: Twitter, Facebook & Instagram

Meteorologist Paul Heggen: Twitter, Facebook & Instagram

Meteorologist Bill Reh: Twitter & Facebook & Instagram

Meteorologist Brian Hutton, Jr.: Twitter & Facebook

Weather & Traffic Anchor Laura Smith: Twitter & Facebook

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