Many of you saw a snowflake on your phone’s weather app for the Christmas day forecast, but don’t ask Santa for a sled just yet because odds are a white Christmas will not happen in central North Carolina.
Christmas week is expected to be another wild weather week with highs near 60 Thursday for Christmas Eve as a strong cold front moves in. This cold front will bring rain and possibly thunderstorms to most everyone Thursday. As the rain moves out Friday for Christmas day drastically colder air will be moving in.
This weather set up where cold, dry air is chasing rain out of our area usually does not result in snow for central North Carolina. We sometimes see a few wet snowflakes in that situation and that remains possible next Friday, but getting a traditional white Christmas still does not look likely.
The long term average chances of Central North Carolina getting a white Christmas are only two percent for the Triangle and zero percent for the Sandhills. The last white Christmas in the triangle was snow falling Christmas night in 2010. Fayetteville and the Sandhills have never had a white Christmas. So, the chances of a white Christmas this year in Fayetteville remain at zero percent while the Triangle could see a five percent chance of a white Christmas this year, but that’s a stretch and might only be a few snowflakes falling and not sticking.
Most generic phone apps get their forecast from computer models and have no human interaction. North Carolina weather is complicated enough where that usually doesn’t work out in the long term. Many weather apps that have human interaction, like the CBS 17 weather app, use computer models as one of the many tools to create the final forecast. So, the snowflake you saw on your phone’s weather app likely was driven by one computer model run out of 100’s of computer model forecast runs.
This next big weather maker is still about one week away and lots can change between now and then. Two things look almost certain though, we will have mild temps and rain Thursday and drastically colder weather will move in Friday for Christmas Day.
Stay tune to CBS 17 for more updates as we get closer to the holiday.
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